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PVC : 先物は強気トレンドを示し、大喜びしました。彼らは上位トラックに近づき、その後下落し、スポット価格は概ね暖まった。

115,664
June 16, 2023, 4:52 PM


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PVCA é °è 'e / e / s / s:é é éPVC市场主流成交价格上涨,现货市场气氛开始回暖。估价对比来看:其中华北地区上涨60-70元/吨,华东地区上涨80元/吨,华南地区上涨30-70元/吨,东北地区上涨50-70元/吨,华中地区上涨20元/吨,西南地区上涨50元/吨。上游PVC生产企业上调出厂报价20-50元/吨,部分企业稳价出货为主。期货攀升出现近期新高,现货市场报价心态恢复,一口价报盘普遍较昨日上调,但高价难成交,期货震荡上涨,点价货源优势逐步下降,且基差变化不大。其中华东地区基差报盘09合约-(80-150),华南地区09合约-(0-50),北方地区09合约-(350-400-500),西南地区09合约-(200-270)。现货价格上行后市场成交多以一口价为主,但下游采购谨慎,追涨意愿不高,实单跟随不多,部分贸易商进行补货。乙烯法报盘同样小幅上调为主。

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°é è 'conductor é é °conductorPVC09合约期价的运行突破5800关口,出现了近期运行的新高点位置,期价自底部5596对比今日的最高点5829已经反弹逾233点位,且周五时段的整体期价自早盘上涨后一直居高不下,盘内成交出现了一定的多头趋势,其中多开23.3%对比空开22.8%首次在近期开仓中,多开反转。但整体呈现的离场行为中空平也助力了期价的反弹。技术层面显示布林带(13、13、2)三轨开口发散,中轨上轨存在开口向上的趋势,期价的运行短期之内或仍继续高位整理,但或有反复性,继续观察上轨5840-5850压力位附近的表现。

A °é è 'recent recent host é host é í í í éAll our interestsPVC基本面不论是自身供需还是出口价格方面,以及电石支撑方面均呈现弱势,且房地产数据表现不佳。但商品情绪的反转上行带动了PVC期货盘面,进一步影响了PVC现货市场。因此情绪的带动和PVC基本面略显背离。但基于往期经验,情绪带来的波动往往要超出基本面所决定的幅度。因此在整体商品转好之际,PVC即便基本面存在弱势,但仍旧跟随整体情绪出现了较好的回暖表现。外盘方面国际油价上涨达到一周高点,美元走软,科威特石油公司的首席执行官表示,预计中国对石油的需求在今年下半年将继续攀升。另外,欧洲央行(ECB)周四如期将利率上调至22年新高,这意味着将进一步收紧货币政策。周三,美联储维持利率不变,但暗示年底前至少加息0.5个百分点。整体来看短期之内PVC现货价格或可在上涨后的相对高位进行整理。

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