リン酸肥料デイリーレビュー、6月29日: 強力なコストサポートが残っており、市場は高レベルで堅調に

Monoammonium Phosphate Price Index

According to FDD data, on June 25, the domestic 55% powder monoammonium phosphate (MAP) index stood at 4,435.00, flat from the previous working day. The 55% granular MAP index stood at 4,450.00, flat from the previous working day. The 58% powder MAP index stood at 4,710.00, flat from the previous working day.

Monoammonium Phosphate Market Analysis and Forecast

The domestic monoammonium phosphate market remained stable at high levels today. On the supply side, most producers were still executing earlier orders, with no significant changes in market prices. Raw material prices remained elevated, traders maintained firm sentiment, and actual transactions were negotiated on a case-by-case basis.

In the market, sellers remained firm but constrained, buyers were cautious and wait-and-see, and traders were reluctant to sell while waiting for further price increases.

On the demand side, the market is currently in the transition period between the end of summer fertilizer demand and the start of autumn fertilizer preparation. End-user fertilizer demand remained weak. Downstream compound fertilizer plants continued to operate at low rates. Some producers had already completed partial raw material restocking earlier, showing limited willingness to purchase at high prices, while actual procurement remained mainly small-volume and need-based.

On the raw material side, renewed friction between the U.S. and Iran occurred over the weekend, mainly involving attacks on vessels in the Strait. Market concerns over the full resumption of navigation through the Strait continued, and comprehensive premium-based bottom support is expected to persist for some time. Sulfur prices moved higher at high levels today, while port inventories remained low, providing continued price support. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated at high levels, and phosphate rock prices remained firm at elevated levels. Cost pressure continued to increase, and producers showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm.

Overall, supported by costs and tight supply, the MAP market is expected to remain firm in the short term. Going forward, attention should be paid to raw material price trends, the start of autumn fertilizer preparation by downstream compound fertilizer producers, and the transmission of sulfur market movements to the cost side after the signing of the U.S.-Iran agreement.

Diammonium Phosphate Price Index

According to FDD data, on June 29, the domestic mainstream 64% granular diammonium phosphate (DAP) index stood at 4,571.67, flat from the previous working day. The 60% brown DAP index stood at 4,350.00, flat from the previous working day. The 57% DAP index stood at 4,425.00, flat from the previous working day.

Diammonium Phosphate Market Analysis and Forecast

The domestic diammonium phosphate market continued to consolidate at high levels today. On the supply side, some producers mainly focused on shipping earlier pending orders, while others gradually issued new prices. Price-support sentiment remained strong, and actual transactions continued to be negotiated.

In the market, the wait-and-see atmosphere continued.

On the demand side, the market is currently in the traditional off-season for fertilizer use. Domestic autumn fertilizer preparation has not yet started on a large scale. Most downstream compound fertilizer plants maintained low operating rates, with procurement limited to small volumes for daily rigid demand. Grassroots distributors remained cautious, and transactions were mainly small and scattered, leaving overall trading activity deadlocked and subdued.

On the raw material side, renewed friction between the U.S. and Iran occurred over the weekend, mainly involving attacks on vessels in the Strait. Market concerns over the full resumption of navigation through the Strait continued, and comprehensive premium-based bottom support is expected to persist for some time. Sulfur prices moved higher at high levels today, while port inventories remained low, providing continued price support. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated at high levels. Phosphate rock prices remained firm at elevated levels, and high raw material costs continued to increase cost pressure, providing strong support to the market.

Overall, the DAP market is expected to continue operating at high levels in the short term. Going forward, attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices, downstream demand follow-up, and subsequent adjustments to export policies.

Sulfur Market Prices

According to FDD data, on June 29, the domestic granular sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port stood at RMB 9,150.00/tonne, up 2.81% from the previous working day. The granular sulfur price at Dafeng Port stood at RMB 9,130.00/tonne, up 3.16% from the previous working day. The powder/block sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port stood at RMB 9,100.00/tonne, up 2.48% from the previous working day. The powder/block sulfur price at Dafeng Port stood at RMB 9,080.00/tonne, up 2.83% from the previous working day. Solid sulfur in East China stood at RMB 9,450.00/tonne, up 8.25% from the previous working day, while liquid sulfur in East China stood at RMB 8,940.00/tonne, up 10.51% from the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast

The domestic sulfur market saw overall prices rise today, with clear regional divergence and a slight improvement in trading sentiment compared with the previous period. Shandong liquid sulfur performed strongly, with prices rising sharply. Since the weekend, regional auction transactions have been active, with more premium transactions, mainly supported by the successive restart of downstream enterprises, steady release of terminal rigid demand, and improved purchasing enthusiasm, which effectively drove the regional liquid sulfur market higher.

Imported sulfur at ports was supported by multiple external positive factors, and price-support sentiment was strong. Over the weekend, U.S.-Iran geopolitical friction heated up again, and vessel attacks in the Strait triggered market concerns over navigation stability, lifting the shipping risk premium further. Shipping companies remained cautious and are unlikely to easily adjust Middle East freight operations before receiving a clear and stable navigation implementation plan. Bottom premium support in the market is expected to persist.

At the same time, Russia once again extended its export ban on all categories of industrial sulfur to the end of the year. This second extension during the year further tightened the total volume of globally tradable sulfur, supporting both international and domestic spot prices. Affected by this, port holders kept offers high, and low-priced cargoes were scarce.

However, bargaining differences between industrial buyers and traders remained obvious. Market activity was mostly tentative, with limited substantive transactions. In the afternoon, the market remained in a stalemate.

Looking ahead, in the short term, the sulfur market is supported by multiple supply-tightening factors, including geopolitical risks, shipping uncertainty and Russia’s export ban. The price bottom is firm, and the overall market is expected to fluctuate on a stronger note with regional divergence. Shandong liquid sulfur is expected to maintain a firm pattern supported by post-restart rigid demand, but demand growth is relatively strong only in stages and may lack sustainability, limiting upside room. The port market has sufficient positive support, but transactions are unlikely to expand rapidly, making a one-sided trend difficult.

In the medium to long term, the global sulfur supply-tightening logic is unlikely to reverse in the short term, and comprehensive premium support is expected to continue. Going forward, continued attention should be paid to actual navigation conditions in the Strait, the pace of Middle Eastern cargo arrivals, and the sustainability of domestic downstream operating rates. If overseas cargoes arrive intensively later and demand follow-up slows, the market’s upward momentum will gradually come under pressure.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates

June 29: In the Anhui MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,530-4,550/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

June 29: In the Northeast China MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,250/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

June 29: In the Henan MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,530-4,550/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

June 29: In the Hubei MAP market, mainstream 55% powder MAP ex-factory prices were quoted at around RMB 4,200-4,450/tonne, with offers stable.

June 29: In the Jiangsu MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,520-4,500/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

June 29: In the Shandong MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,530-4,500/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

June 29: In the Sichuan MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

June 29: In the Yunnan MAP market, 55% powder MAP ex-factory prices were quoted at around RMB 4,250-4,300/tonne, with offers stable.

June 29: In Shaanxi, 60% DAP ex-factory self-pickup prices were quoted at RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne, with offers stable.

June 29: In Northeast China, 64% DAP ex-factory self-pickup prices were quoted at RMB 4,550-4,600/tonne, with offers stable.

June 29: In Hebei, 57% DAP self-pickup prices were quoted at RMB 4,400-4,500/tonne, with offers stable.

June 29: In Hubei, 64% DAP ex-factory self-pickup prices were quoted at RMB 4,800-4,850/tonne, with offers stable.

June 29: In Shandong, 64% DAP ex-warehouse self-pickup prices were quoted at RMB 4,900-4,980/tonne, with offers stable. 57% DAP self-pickup prices at railway platforms were quoted at RMB 4,400-4,500/tonne, with offers stable.