リン酸塩＆複合肥料市場動向｜予測と現在の課題を解説

MAP Price Index:

According to FDD data estimates, on November 5 the domestic MAP 55% powder index was 3,661.25, flat versus the previous working day; the 55% granular index was 3,925.00, flat versus the previous working day; and the 58% powder index was 3,866.67, flat versus the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Outlook:

Today the domestic MAP market was mainly weak and steady. On the enterprise side, most factories are executing earlier orders only sporadically, new order business is thin, most enterprises have temporarily stopped quoting externally, and the market remains in a wait-and-see mode. On the market side, supply has declined somewhat, but new orders are following up only modestly and the trading atmosphere is stalemated and quiet. On the demand side, autumn fertilization is basically winding down, market inventory is ample, low-end cargo is still appearing, and some downstream compound fertilizer enterprises continue to purchase only on rigid demand without rushing to place new orders; market sentiment is fairly cautious and demand remains rather weak. On the raw material side, domestic sulfur prices have recently stabilized and repaired, sulphuric acid prices held steady for the time being, the phosphate rock market was mainly stable, and after continued declines in raw material prices the supportive sentiment for enterprises has weakened. Overall, the MAP market currently remains in a pattern of weakening cost support combined with feeble demand recovery; although export news has caused some disturbance, the market is expected to stay weak until incremental drivers emerge in reality. In addition, the phosphate and compound fertilizer conference is about to be held, and the market is mostly watching whether the exchanges at the conference can spur any change in demand. Going forward, close attention should be paid to raw material price trends, the rhythm of downstream reserve demand, and how export policy and geopolitical developments transmit to the cost side.

Specifically, regional market prices are as follows:

MAP Market Prices (yuan/t)

DAP Price Index:

According to FDD data estimates, on November 5 the domestic mainstream DAP 64% granular index was 4,733.33, flat versus the previous working day; the 60% brown index was 4,150.00, flat versus the previous working day; and the 57% content index was 3,875.00, flat versus the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Outlook:

Today the domestic DAP market continued to run weak and steady. On the enterprise side, some enterprises are mainly focused on shipping previously pending orders, prices temporarily lack a driver, and actual deals remain on a negotiated basis. On the market side, although exports have disturbed market sentiment, overall pessimism has yet to fully ease. On the demand side, autumn fertilization is essentially in its closing stage, low prices are frequent, the trading atmosphere is stalemated and quiet, downstream purchasing is concentrated in small, rigid-demand orders, some traders are under pressure, and overall quotations are mainly weak and steady. On the raw material side, the domestic sulfur market has recently stabilized and repaired, sulphuric acid prices were steady to slightly adjusted, and the phosphate rock market was mainly stable; overall, raw material prices have weakened their support for enterprises. Overall, the DAP market is expected to continue its weak and steady posture in the short term; going forward, close attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices, downstream demand follow-through, and later adjustments to export policy.

Specifically, regional market prices are as follows:

DAP Market Prices (yuan/t)

Sulfur Market Prices:

According to FDD data estimates, on November 5 the domestic sulfur price for granular cargo at Zhenjiang Port was 4,800 yuan/t, up 50 yuan/t versus the previous working day; granular cargo at Dafeng Port was 4,780 yuan/t, up 50 yuan/t versus the previous working day; lump and powder cargo at Zhenjiang Port was 4,750 yuan/t, up 50 yuan/t versus the previous working day; lump and powder cargo at Dafeng Port was 4,730 yuan/t, up 50 yuan/t versus the previous working day; East China solid sulfur was 5,300 yuan/t, flat versus the previous working day; and East China liquid sulfur was 5,100 yuan/t, down 125 yuan/t versus the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Outlook:

Today the domestic sulfur market continued to be mainly rangebound in a narrow band. At the ports, the spot market for granular sulfur at Yangtze River ports steadied and repaired: after prices moved relatively lower, rigid-demand buying entered and buying enthusiasm improved somewhat, but sustainability and strength still need to be weighed; without incremental demand or outside information to lift it, most participants are standing aside and waiting, holders hold differing views and are watching how buying follows through, with fairly limited confidence in raising offers. In the Shandong liquid sulfur market, concluded prices fluctuated in a narrow range: as the release of downstream rigid demand slowed, willingness to take cargo kept weakening, inventories at some refinery enterprises recovered, selling willingness strengthened, and the market atmosphere weakened further after news of lower offers emerged; in the short term, without bullish factors, non-rigid demand is hard to release in a concentrated way. Overall, a cautious mood persists in the market, the sustainability of rigid demand is fairly limited after its appropriate release, and the market cannot form an overly optimistic expectation; combined with the continued cooling of the international geopolitical situation recently, as news of US-Iran talks keeps signaling a ceasefire, the continued easing of the international sentiment premium may further strengthen the downward pressure on the domestic market. However, changes in domestic demand currently influence the market more strongly than supply disruptions, and the market is still waiting to see whether lower sulfur prices can bring about an improvement and repair in downstream demand.

Specifically, regional market prices are as follows:

Sulfur Regional Market Quotations (yuan/t)

Phosphate Fertilizer Market News and Updates:

Nov 5: The Anhui MAP market quoted 55% powder delivered at around 3,700-3,800 yuan/t, with quotations steady.

Nov 5: The Northeast MAP market quoted 55% powder delivered at around 3,800-3,850 yuan/t, with quotations steady.

Nov 5: The Henan MAP market quoted 55% powder delivered at around 3,650-3,700 yuan/t, with quotations steady.

Nov 5: The Hubei MAP market quoted mainstream 55% powder ex-works at around 3,550-3,650 yuan/t, with quotations steady.

Nov 5: The Jiangsu MAP market quoted 55% powder delivered at around 3,650-3,700 yuan/t, with quotations steady.

Nov 5: The Shandong MAP market quoted 55% powder delivered at around 3,650-3,700 yuan/t, with quotations steady.

Nov 5: The Sichuan MAP market quoted 55% powder delivered at around 3,550-3,650 yuan/t, with quotations steady.

Nov 5: The Yunnan MAP market quoted 55% powder ex-works at around 3,400-3,500 yuan/t, with quotations steady.

Nov 5: Shaanxi quoted DAP 60% ex-works for self-pickup at 4,100-4,150 yuan/t, with quotations steady.

Nov 5: The Northeast region quoted DAP 64% ex-works for self-pickup at 4,900-5,000 yuan/t, with quotations steady.

Nov 5: Hebei quoted DAP 57% for self-pickup at 3,800-4,000 yuan/t, steady.

Nov 5: The Hubei region quoted DAP 64% ex-works for self-pickup at 4,700-4,850 yuan/t, with quotations steady.

Nov 5: The Shandong region quoted DAP 64% ex-warehouse for self-pickup at 4,550-4,900 yuan/t, with quotations steady; 57% for self-pickup at the station was quoted at 3,800-3,900 yuan/t, with quotations steady.