世界農薬市場の動向と地政学的影響に注目

October 20, 2026

FDD-global.com

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世界の農薬市場は慎重な需要の中で、改良された在庫補充意欲により安定してきています。グリホサートやグリフォシネートのような主要製品は、コスト上昇要因や需給の逼迫した状況から恩恵を受けています。中東の緊張状況や高い運賃率を含む地政学的な不確実性が、市場心理や価格の持続性に影響しています。除草剤市場では一部のカテゴリーが急上昇する一方で、他のカテゴリーは停滞したままであるといった分化が見られます。過剰供給や心理の冷却により、黄リンの価格が緩やかに低下しています。この詳細な分析では、現在のパフォーマンス、安定している製品価格と変動している製品価格の概要、輸出強度や季節需要の役割を明らかにしています。今後の影響については、主要な地政学的発展に注目してください。

The pesticide market as a whole is in a stabilizing and improving state. Although downstream buyers are mostly following up cautiously on rigid demand, overall restocking willingness has improved somewhat, and the market is still weighing winter-storage expectations. Some products have recently been strongly supported by the cost-push logic, and various factors have contributed to a contraction in supply, producing a fairly strong rally in the short term; however, owing to transmission problems along the industrial chain, there is also an expectation that higher prices will trigger negative feedback from downstream, and the market is temporarily watching how much terminal demand can further absorb. Internationally, the Middle East geopolitical situation remains fluid: although the US President said there would be no strike on Iran before the midterm elections, he also added that a strike could not be ruled out if circumstances change; combined with continuing conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, geopolitical risk remains elevated. In practical terms, the road to talks between the two sides is tortuous, and navigation risk through the two chokepoints — the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb — remains high. High freight rates mean the cost support for the petrochemical industry still cannot collapse quickly in the short term, and the cost-side premium for some products remains persistently high; still, absent any new driver, there are signs of a geopolitical peak forming that exert a sentiment drag. Overall, caution persists in the market at present. Some products have risen markedly, but other categories are temporarily unable to follow through, and performance is clearly divergent, with a wait-and-see atmosphere continuing to show. Going forward, watch changes in geopolitical sentiment, export intensity, and seasonal demand.

Mainstream Domestic Glyphosate Market Prices:

Region	Company	Oct 16, 2026	Oct 19, 2026	Change
East China	Jiangsu Yangnong (97% technical)	30000	30000	0
East China	Guangxin Agrochemical (95% technical)	-	-	0
East China	Zhejiang Xinan Chemical (95% technical)	28000	28000	0
East China	Nantong Jiangshan (95% technical)	28000	28000	0
Central China	Henan Hongdongfang (95% technical)	28500	28500	0
Central China	Xingfa Chemical (95% technical)	28000	28000	0
Southwest China	Sichuan Fuhua (95% technical)	30000	30000	0
Southwest China	Sichuan Hebang (97% technical)	30000	30000	0

Mainstream Domestic Glufosinate Market Prices:

Region	Company	Oct 16, 2026	Oct 19, 2026	Change
East China	Binnong Technology	-	-	0
East China	Yongnong Bio	-	-	0
East China	Jiangsu Qizhou	60000	60000	0
East China	Jiangsu Huifeng	-	-	0
East China	Tiansheng Chemical	60000	60000	0
North China	Hebei Weiyuan	60000	60000	0
Southwest China	Lier Chemical	-	-	0

Mainstream Domestic Yellow Phosphorus Market Prices

Region	Market	Oct 16, 2026	Oct 19, 2026	Change
Southwest China	Sichuan	27650	27550	-100
Southwest China	Guizhou	27800	27750	-50
Southwest China	Yunnan	27650	27550	-100
North China	Shandong	28750	28650	-100
North China	Jiangsu	28750	28650	-100
Central China	Hubei	28350	28250	-100

Market Analysis

Herbicides: The herbicide market as a whole is showing some stabilization and repair. The major products glufosinate and glyphosate have both seen supply-side repair as raw material prices rose. Although news on the geopolitical issue keeps shifting, the cost escalation it brings remains hard to resolve quickly, while on the demand side the market is still watching for a further driver. Recently the core categories, affected by tight production and price increases of raw material intermediates and by international political issues, have kept the market focused on concluded business and on the sustainability of the moves, and follow-on gains in substitutes have already appeared. Overall, conditions for inherent strength remain, but downstream buyers are mostly taking goods on rigid demand, and follow-through on the demand side is relatively cautious.

Yellow phosphorus: Today yellow phosphorus market prices continued to edge down, with the market mostly on the sidelines; some downstream buyers still hold a price-pressing, bottom-probing mentality, and the continued fall in sulfur prices has also created some sentiment pressure. After buying on demand in the short term, downstream willingness to keep purchasing declined, trading activity has paused, and the market is in a wait-and-see posture; under the stalemate, upstream offers have loosened, though upstream still has the conditions to hold prices and the depth of any decline remains limited for now. At present downstream buyers are mostly following up with modest rigid demand; after the recent round of periodic restocking is completed, willingness to chase prices has faded, and with the market atmosphere cooling, participants are mainly waiting to see.

Pesticide Market Price Overview

Herbicides:

97% diuron, down 3,000 yuan, to 35,000 yuan/t.

Product	Content/Formulation	Sep 26-Oct 2 price, yuan/t (per kL)	Oct 3-9 price, yuan/t (per kL)	Remarks
Glyphosate	95% TC	28000	28000	Stable price, tight supply
2,4-D	98% TC	13500	13500	Stable price, stable supply
Diquat	40% mother liquor	17000	17000	Stable price, stable supply
Oxyfluorfen	96% TC	136000	136000	Stable price, tight supply
Glufosinate-ammonium	95% TC	60000	60000	Stable price, tight supply
Quizalofop-p-ethyl	96% TC	135000	135000	Stable price, stable supply
Nicosulfuron	95% TC	150000	150000	Stable price, stable supply
Atrazine	97% TC	20500	20500	Stable price, stable supply
Simazine	97% TC	26000	26000	Stable price, stable supply
Clethodim	90% TC	72000	72000	Stable price, stable supply
Cyhalofop-butyl	97% TC	102000	102000	Stable price, stable supply
Clodinafop-propargyl	96% TC	160000	160000	Stable price, stable supply
Fluroxypyr	97% TC	70000	70000	Stable price, stable supply
Bispyribac-sodium	96% TC	200000	200000	Stable price, stable supply
Mesotrione	97% TC	82000	82000	Stable price, stable supply
Pretilachlor	95% TC	31000	31000	Stable price, stable supply
Metolachlor	96% TC	24000	24000	Stable price, stable supply
Fenoxaprop-p-ethyl	95% TC	145000	145000	Stable price, stable supply
Haloxyfop-R-methyl	97% TC	112000	112000	Stable price, stable supply
Bentazone	95% TC	73000	73000	Stable price, stable supply
Acetochlor	92% TC	20000	20000	Stable price, tight supply
Butachlor	92% TC	19000	19000	Stable price, tight supply
Quinclorac	95% TC	150000	150000	Stable price, stable supply
Quinclorac	85% TC	102000 (100% basis)	102000 (100% basis)	Stable price, tight supply
Trifluralin	97% TC	33000	33000	Stable price, tight supply
Fomesafen	96% TC	108000	108000	Stable price, stable supply
Diuron	97% TC	38000	35000	Price cut, stable supply
Tembotrione	98% TC	210000	210000	Stable price, stable supply
Bensulfuron-methyl	96% TC	148000	148000	Stable price, tight supply
Oxadiazon	95% TC	150000	150000	Stable price, stable supply
Pendimethalin	96% TC	41500	41500	Stable price, stable supply

Insecticides:

97% acetamiprid, up 3,000 yuan, to 62,000 yuan/t. 96% thiamethoxam, up 1,000 yuan, to 56,000 yuan/t. 97% pymetrozine, up 1,000 yuan, to 96,000 yuan/t.

Product	Content/Formulation	Sep 26-Oct 2 price, yuan/t (per kL)	Oct 3-9 price, yuan/t (per kL)	Remarks
Lambda-cyhalothrin	96% TC	108000	108000	Stable price, stable supply
Bifenthrin	96% TC	128000	128000	Stable price, stable supply
Imidacloprid	97% TC	72000	72000	Stable price, tight supply
Acetamiprid	97% TC	59000	62000	Price rise, tight supply
Thiamethoxam	96% TC	55000	56000	Price rise, tight supply
Clothianidin	97% TC	68000	68000	Stable price, tight supply
Nitenpyram	97% TC	120000	120000	Stable price, stable supply
Pymetrozine	97% TC	95000	96000	Price rise, stable supply
Fipronil	95% TC	330000	330000	Stable price, stable supply
Chlorfenapyr	97% TC	116000	116000	Stable price, stable supply
Abamectin refined powder	95% TC	350000	350000	Stable price, stable supply
Emamectin benzoate	70% TC	530000	530000	Stable price, stable supply
Spirodiclofen	97% TC	125000	125000	Stable price, stable supply
Etoxazole	96% TC	140000	140000	Stable price, stable supply
Pyridaben	96% TC	120000	120000	Stable price, stable supply
Phoxim	95% TC	31000 (100% basis price)	31000 (100% basis price)	Stable price, stable supply
Profenofos	94% TC	48000	48000	Stable price, stable supply
Chlorpyrifos	97% TC	38000	38000	Stable price, stable supply
Acephate	97% TC	37000	37000	Stable price, stable supply
Acephate	98% TC	38000	38000	Stable price, stable supply
Malathion	95% TC	30000	30000	Stable price, stable supply
Shamingdan	98% TC	80000	80000	Stable price, stable supply
Shachongdan	95% TC	25000	25000	Stable price, stable supply
Indoxacarb	95% TC	385000	385000	Stable price, stable supply
Propargite	90% TC	56000	56000	Stable price, stable supply
Teflubenzuron	98% TC	370000	370000	Stable price, stable supply
Carbosulfan	92% TC	98000	98000	Stable price, tight supply
Lufenuron	97% TC	112000	112000	Stable price, stable supply
Buprofezin	97% TC	58000	58000	Stable price, stable supply
Metaldehyde	99% TC	33000	33000	Stable price, stable supply
Pyriproxyfen	97% TC	102000	102000	Stable price, stable supply
Dinotefuran	97% TC	125000	125000	Stable price, tight supply
Chlorantraniliprole	96% TC	265000	265000	Stable price, tight supply

Fungicides:

Product	Content/Formulation	Sep 26-Oct 2 price, yuan/t (per kL)	Oct 3-9 price, yuan/t (per kL)	Remarks
Difenoconazole	96% TC	78000	78000	Stable price, stable supply
Propiconazole	95% TC	69000	69000	Stable price, stable supply
Cyproconazole	95% TC	152000	152000	Stable price, stable supply
Tebuconazole	97% TC	49000	49000	Stable price, stable supply
Tricyclazole	95% TC	61000	61000	Stable price, stable supply
Hexaconazole	96% TC	86000	86000	Stable price, stable supply
Triadimefon	95% TC	56000	56000	Stable price, tight supply
Epoxiconazole	95% TC	230000	230000	Stable price, stable supply
Flusilazole	95% TC	290000	290000	Stable price, stable supply
Paclobutrazol	90% TC	63000 (100% basis)	63000 (100% basis)	Stable price, tight supply
Paclobutrazol	95% TC	65000	65000	Stable price, tight supply
Prochloraz	96% TC	48000	48000	Stable price, stable supply
Azoxystrobin	98% TC	116000	116000	Stable price, stable supply
Pyraclostrobin	97% TC	120000	120000	Stable price, stable supply
Kresoxim-methyl	96% TC	175000	175000	Stable price, stable supply
Dimethomorph	98% TC	58000	58000	Stable price, tight supply
Thiophanate-methyl	97% TC	31000	31000	Stable price, stable supply
Carbendazim	97% TC	35000	35000	Stable price, stable supply
Iprodione	97% TC	190000	190000	Stable price, tight supply
Thifluzamide	96% TC	230000	230000	Stable price, stable supply
Pyrimethanil	97% TC	72000	72000	Stable price, stable supply
Thiram	97% TC	17500	17500	Stable price, tight supply
Metalaxyl	98% TC	98000	98000	Stable price, stable supply
Picoxystrobin	97% TC	230000	230000	Stable price, stable supply
Trifloxystrobin	97% TC	170000	170000	Stable price, stable supply
Boscalid	98% TC	250000	250000	Stable price, stable supply
Fludioxonil	98% TC	485000	485000	Stable price, stable supply