リン酸肥料デイリーレビュー、6月16日: 硫黄は減少後も安定し、リン酸肥料のコストサポートは継続

Monoammonium Phosphate Price Index

According to FDD data calculations, on June 16, China’s domestic 55% powdered MAP index stood at 4,370.00, unchanged from the previous working day. The 55% granular MAP index stood at 4,450.00, unchanged from the previous working day. The 58% powdered MAP index stood at 4,676.67, also unchanged from the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Forecast

Today, China’s domestic monoammonium phosphate market remained firm. On the producer side, most plants were still executing previous orders. Raw material prices continued to fluctuate at high levels, and production cost pressure remained elevated. Most producers continued to suspend new order-taking and quotations, tradable spot supply remained tight, and actual transactions were negotiated on a case-by-case basis.

On the market side, sentiment remained firm on the seller side, while buyers were cautious and wait-and-see. Traders were reluctant to sell and continued to wait for potential price increases.

On the demand side, downstream compound fertilizer producers showed moderate demand and mainly procured based on immediate needs. Market participants remained cautious, and transactions were mostly negotiated as needed.

On the raw material side, easing U.S.-Iran tensions led to a decline in the risk premium, and the previously inflated prices corrected rationally. However, as the agreement has not yet been fully implemented and uncertainties remain, wait-and-see sentiment persisted. Prices did not fall further and may fluctuate within a new range in the short term. Today, sulfur prices fluctuated at high levels with divergent trends. Port inventories remained low. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated at elevated levels, with some regional increases. Phosphate rock prices remained stable at high levels. Cost pressure continued to increase, and producers showed limited willingness to reduce prices.

Overall, supported by costs and tight supply, the MAP market is expected to remain firm at elevated levels in the short term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to raw material trends, the pace of downstream fertilizer stocking, and changes in the international geopolitical environment.

Diammonium Phosphate Price Index

According to FDD data calculations, on June 16, China’s domestic mainstream 64% granular DAP index stood at 4,421.67, up 0.19% from the previous working day. The 60% brown DAP index stood at 4,350.00, unchanged from the previous working day. The 57% DAP index stood at 4,300.00, also unchanged from the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Forecast

Today, China’s domestic diammonium phosphate market remained in a stalemated and wait-and-see pattern. On the producer side, some companies mainly focused on shipping previous pending orders. Raw material prices remained high, production cost pressure was still significant, and actual orders continued to be negotiated.

On the market side, cautious wait-and-see sentiment remained strong, and the trading atmosphere was subdued and stalemated.

On the demand side, the market is still in the traditional fertilizer demand gap period. Domestic autumn fertilizer stocking has not yet started on a large scale. Downstream compound fertilizer plants mostly maintained low operating rates, and procurement was limited to small-volume restocking based on daily rigid demand. Grassroots distributors remained cautious, and transactions were mainly scattered small orders. Overall trading activity remained weak.

On the raw material side, easing U.S.-Iran tensions led to a decline in the risk premium, and previously inflated prices corrected rationally. However, as the agreement has not yet been fully implemented and uncertainties remain, market participants remained cautious. Prices did not fall further and may fluctuate within a new range in the short term. Today, sulfur prices fluctuated at high levels with divergent trends. Port inventories remained low. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated at elevated levels, with some regional increases. Phosphate rock prices remained stable at high levels. High raw material prices continued to intensify cost pressure and provided strong support to the market.

Overall, the DAP market is expected to continue consolidating in the short term. Going forward, key factors to watch include changes in raw material prices, downstream demand follow-up, and later adjustments to export policies.

Sulfur Market Prices

According to FDD data calculations, on June 16, granular sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was priced at 9,600.00, up 1.05% from the previous working day. Granular sulfur at Dafeng Port was priced at 9,580.00, up 1.05% from the previous working day. Powder/lump sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was listed at 950.00, up 1.06% from the previous working day. Powder/lump sulfur at Dafeng Port was priced at 9,530.00, up 1.06% from the previous working day. Solid sulfur in East China was priced at 9,300.00, unchanged from the previous working day. Liquid sulfur in East China was priced at 9,170.00, unchanged from the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast

Today, China’s domestic sulfur market generally stabilized and rebounded after an excessive decline, though trends varied significantly by product type and region. Staged progress in the U.S.-Iran conflict reduced market risk sentiment, and import prices that had previously been pushed up by geopolitical premiums corrected rationally. However, as the peace agreement has not yet been fully implemented and uncertainties remain in the Middle East, market participants maintained a wait-and-see stance. Prices did not continue to fall sharply and instead sought a new balance within the latest price range.

At ports, after yesterday’s sharp correction, long-term contract buyers showed stronger willingness to replenish inventories. Cargo holders became more reluctant to sell, the buying price center moved higher, and trading sentiment improved. However, transactions for domestic solid sulfur resources were weak, and high-priced cargo in Northwest China failed to attract bids, reflecting clear differences in market acceptance across different sources of supply.

By region, the Shandong liquid sulfur market was affected by the “buying on rises, avoiding on declines” mentality. Downstream procurement was sluggish, inventory pressure intensified, and prices weakened. Northeast China remained at high levels, while factories in Northwest China saw slight declines.

From an inventory perspective, national port sulfur inventories remained low, providing support to the price center. However, this support is currently more of a bottom support than an upward driver.

Overall, the sulfur market is currently in a tug-of-war between fading geopolitical premiums and support from low inventories. Yesterday’s sharp correction reflected a repricing of earlier excessive premiums, while today’s stabilization and rebound represented a rebalancing process within a new price range. In the short term, the key variable remains the progress of the U.S.-Iran agreement, and repeated news-driven fluctuations may continue. In the medium term, low inventories and uncertainty in refinery operating rates will jointly support prices. However, if geopolitical risks continue to clear, prices may still have room to return to a more rational range.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates

On June 16, the Anhui MAP market quoted 55% powdered MAP at around RMB 4,400-4,500/mt delivered, with quotations stable.

On June 16, the Northeast China MAP market quoted 55% powdered MAP at around RMB 4,250/mt delivered, with quotations stable.

On June 16, the Henan MAP market quoted 55% powdered MAP at around RMB 4,380-4,450/mt delivered, with quotations stable.

On June 16, the Hubei MAP market quoted mainstream 55% powdered MAP ex-works at around RMB 4,200-4,450/mt, with quotations stable.

On June 16, the Jiangsu MAP market quoted 55% powdered MAP at around RMB 4,400-4,480/mt delivered, with quotations stable.

On June 16, the Shandong MAP market quoted 55% powdered MAP at around RMB 4,400-4,500/mt delivered, with quotations stable.

On June 16, the Sichuan MAP market quoted 55% powdered MAP at around RMB 4,150/mt delivered, with quotations stable.

On June 16, the Yunnan MAP market quoted 55% powdered MAP ex-works at around RMB 4,200-4,250/mt, with quotations stable.

On June 16, in Shaanxi, 60% DAP was quoted at RMB 4,300-4,350/mt ex-works for self-pickup, with quotations stable.

On June 16, in Northeast China, 64% DAP was quoted at RMB 4,550-4,600/mt ex-works for self-pickup, with quotations stable.

On June 16, in Hebei, 64% DAP was quoted at RMB 4,200-4,250/mt ex-warehouse for self-pickup, with quotations stable. 57% DAP was quoted at RMB 4,300-4,350/mt for station self-pickup, with quotations stable.

On June 16, in Hubei, 64% DAP was quoted at RMB 4,400-4,450/mt ex-works for self-pickup, with quotations stable. 57% DAP was quoted at RMB 3,600-3,650/mt ex-works for self-pickup, with quotations stable.

On June 16, in Shandong, 64% DAP was quoted at RMB 4,700-4,800/mt ex-warehouse for self-pickup, with quotations stable. 57% DAP was quoted at RMB 4,300-4,380/mt for station self-pickup, with quotations stable.

On June 16, the Yunnan DAP market had ended, with no current quotations available.