Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review, June 17: Cost Support and Easing Geopolitical Tensions Coexist; Phosphate Fertilizer Market Remains Firm

Monoammonium Phosphate Price Index

According to FDD data calculations, on June 17, China’s domestic 55% powdered MAP index stood at 4,398.75, up 0.66% from the previous working day. The 55% granular MAP index stood at 4,450.00, unchanged from the previous working day. The 58% powdered MAP index stood at 4,710.00, up 0.71% from the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Forecast

Today, China’s domestic monoammonium phosphate market remained firm with a stronger bias. On the producer side, most plants were still executing previous orders. After the latest guidance prices were implemented, the ex-works price for 55% powdered MAP in Central China was raised again, broadly aligning with current market prices. Traders maintained a firm stance, and actual transactions were negotiated on a case-by-case basis.

On the market side, sellers remained firm but constrained, buyers were cautious and wait-and-see, and traders were reluctant to sell while waiting for further price increases.

On the demand side, the market is currently in the transition period between the end of summer fertilizer demand and the start of autumn fertilizer stocking, with end-user fertilizer demand remaining weak. Downstream compound fertilizer plants continued to operate at low loads. Some large producers hold certain raw material inventories and are currently taking a wait-and-see approach to procurement, while other plants are purchasing based on their own immediate needs.

On the raw material side, the broader geopolitical situation appears to be moving toward de-escalation, with the market largely waiting for both sides to formally sign an agreement. The easing of U.S.-Iran tensions has reduced the risk premium, leading to a rational correction in previously inflated prices. Today, sulfur prices consolidated with a weak bias at elevated levels, with divergent trends across products and regions. Port inventories remained low. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated at elevated levels, with increases in some regions. Phosphate rock prices remained stable at high levels. Cost pressure continued to increase, and producers showed limited willingness to reduce prices.

Overall, supported by costs and tight supply, the MAP market is expected to remain firm at elevated levels in the short term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to raw material price trends, the pace of downstream compound fertilizer autumn stocking, and the impact of sulfur market movements on cost transmission after the U.S.-Iran agreement is signed.

Diammonium Phosphate Price Index

According to FDD data calculations, on June 17, China’s domestic mainstream 64% granular DAP index stood at 4,421.67, unchanged from the previous working day. The 60% brown DAP index stood at 4,350.00, unchanged from the previous working day. The 57% DAP index stood at 4,300.00, also unchanged from the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Forecast

Today, China’s domestic diammonium phosphate market remained firm with a wait-and-see stance. On the producer side, some companies mainly focused on shipping previous pending orders. Raw material prices remained high, production cost pressure was still significant, and actual orders continued to be negotiated.

On the market side, cautious wait-and-see sentiment remained strong, and the trading atmosphere was subdued and stalemated.

On the demand side, the market is still in the traditional fertilizer demand gap period. Domestic autumn fertilizer stocking has not yet started on a large scale. Downstream compound fertilizer plants mostly maintained low operating rates, and procurement was limited to small-volume restocking based on daily rigid demand. Grassroots distributors remained cautious, and transactions were mainly scattered small orders. Overall trading activity remained weak.

On the raw material side, the broader geopolitical situation appears to be moving toward de-escalation, with the market largely waiting for both sides to formally sign an agreement. The easing of U.S.-Iran tensions has reduced the risk premium, leading to a rational correction in previously inflated prices. Today, sulfur prices consolidated with a weak bias at elevated levels, with divergent trends across products and regions. Port inventories remained low. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated at elevated levels, with increases in some regions. Phosphate rock prices remained stable at high levels. High raw material costs continued to intensify cost pressure and provided strong support to the market.

Overall, the DAP market is expected to continue consolidating in the short term. Going forward, key factors to watch include changes in raw material prices, downstream demand follow-up, and later adjustments to export policies.

Sulfur Market Prices

According to FDD data calculations, on June 17, granular sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was priced at 9,600.00, unchanged from the previous working day. Granular sulfur at Dafeng Port was priced at 9,580.00, unchanged from the previous working day. Powder/lump sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was priced at 9,550.00, unchanged from the previous working day. Powder/lump sulfur at Dafeng Port was priced at 9,530.00, unchanged from the previous working day. Solid sulfur in East China was priced at 8,730.00, down 6.13% from the previous working day. Liquid sulfur in East China was priced at 8,730.00, down 4.80% from the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast

Today, China’s domestic sulfur market generally fluctuated with a weak bias, with a clear divergence between port and inland markets. Imported granular sulfur at ports temporarily stabilized after a sharp earlier correction, with mainstream transaction levels consolidating around recent lows.

Geopolitical factors remain the largest uncertainty in the current market. The United States and Iran have confirmed that they will formally sign a ceasefire memorandum of understanding this Friday, and the Strait of Hormuz is expected to reopen, significantly reducing concerns over supply risks. However, before the agreement is officially implemented, the market still remains concerned about possible unexpected developments. Some participants are also cautious about the risk of renewed conflict arising from subsequent nuclear negotiations. As a result, neither bulls nor bears are willing to take aggressive positions, leaving the market without a clear short-term direction.

The market is currently in the traditional off-season for agricultural phosphate fertilizers, while compound fertilizer operating rates remain low and demand support is clearly insufficient.

Overall, the entire market remains dominated by wait-and-see sentiment. Downstream buyers lack willingness to actively build inventories, upstream sellers face shipment pressure, and bullish and bearish expectations caused by geopolitical developments are offsetting each other. Regional markets are showing divergent and volatile trends, with no unified strengthening or weakening direction.

Looking ahead, the sulfur market is expected to remain in a volatile pattern driven by a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish factors in the short term. With the formal signing of the U.S.-Iran agreement approaching, if navigation through the Strait of Hormuz resumes smoothly, Middle East sulfur supply will gradually return to the market, placing downward pressure on prices. However, supply recovery will take time, as tanker insurance, waterway clearance, and Middle East refinery restarts all require a transition period. Large-scale cargo arrivals are unlikely in the short term. Meanwhile, downstream demand from phosphate fertilizers and lithium iron phosphate still provides rigid support, and the cost side has not seen a collapse-like decline. Therefore, prices still have some support at lower levels.

At present, most market participants are waiting to see the actual resumption of navigation after the agreement is signed. In the spot market, only long-term contract buyers are interacting based on prevailing market conditions. Without new influencing factors, the trading atmosphere is unlikely to change fundamentally, and the market may continue to consolidate in a volatile range. Going forward, key factors to watch include the progress of navigation recovery through the Strait of Hormuz after the U.S.-Iran agreement is signed, the arrival pace of Middle East cargoes, and downstream phosphate fertilizer procurement.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates

On June 17, the Anhui MAP market quoted 55% powdered MAP at around RMB 4,400-4,500/mt delivered, with quotations stable.

On June 17, the Northeast China MAP market quoted 55% powdered MAP at around RMB 4,250/mt delivered, with quotations stable.

On June 17, the Henan MAP market quoted 55% powdered MAP at around RMB 4,500-4,550/mt delivered, with quotations raised.

On June 17, the Hubei MAP market quoted mainstream 55% powdered MAP ex-works at around RMB 4,200-4,450/mt, with quotations stable.

On June 17, the Jiangsu MAP market quoted 55% powdered MAP at around RMB 4,500/mt delivered, with quotations raised.

On June 17, the Shandong MAP market quoted 55% powdered MAP at around RMB 4,500-4,530/mt delivered, with quotations raised.

On June 17, the Sichuan MAP market quoted 55% powdered MAP at around RMB 4,150/mt delivered, with quotations stable.

On June 17, the Yunnan MAP market quoted 55% powdered MAP ex-works at around RMB 4,200-4,250/mt, with quotations stable.

On June 17, in Shaanxi, 60% DAP was quoted at RMB 4,300-4,350/mt ex-works for self-pickup, with quotations stable.

On June 17, in Northeast China, 64% DAP was quoted at RMB 4,550-4,600/mt ex-works for self-pickup, with quotations stable.

On June 17, in Hebei, 64% DAP was quoted at RMB 4,200-4,250/mt ex-warehouse for self-pickup, with quotations stable. 57% DAP was quoted at RMB 4,300-4,350/mt for station self-pickup, with quotations stable.

On June 17, in Hubei, 64% DAP was quoted at RMB 4,400-4,450/mt ex-works for self-pickup, with quotations stable. 57% DAP was quoted at RMB 3,600-3,650/mt ex-works for self-pickup, with quotations stable.

On June 17, in Shandong, 64% DAP was quoted at RMB 4,700-4,800/mt ex-warehouse for self-pickup, with quotations stable. 57% DAP was quoted at RMB 4,330-4,380/mt for station self-pickup, with quotations raised.

On June 17, the Yunnan DAP market had ended, with no current quotations available.