リン酸肥料デイリーレビュー、6月22日: 高いコスト圧力とタイトな供給が市場を堅固にそして高く保つ

According to FDD data, on June 22, the domestic 55% powder monoammonium phosphate (MAP) index stood at 4,411.25, up 0.14% from the previous working day. The 55% granular MAP index stood at 4,450.00, flat from the previous working day. The 58% powder MAP index stood at 4,710.00, flat from the previous working day.

Monoammonium Phosphate Market Analysis and Forecast

The domestic monoammonium phosphate market continued to run firmly today. On the supply side, most producers were still executing earlier orders. Guidance prices were largely in line with market prices, while raw material prices remained elevated. Traders maintained a firm sentiment, with some offers above guidance levels, and actual transactions were negotiated on a case-by-case basis.

In the market, sellers remained firm but constrained, buyers were cautious and wait-and-see, and traders were reluctant to sell while waiting for further price increases.

On the demand side, the market is currently in the transition period between the end of summer fertilizer demand and the start of autumn fertilizer preparation. End-user fertilizer demand remained weak. Downstream compound fertilizer plants continued to operate at low rates. Some large producers held certain raw material inventories and adopted a wait-and-see procurement approach, while other producers purchased based on their own immediate needs.

On the raw material side, the U.S.-Iran negotiation process fluctuated during the holiday period, while continued interference from Israel intensified market caution over the outlook for negotiations. Iran at one point signaled the possibility of re-blocking the Strait of Hormuz. However, as the overall direction of peace talks has not been fully disrupted, the market response was relatively restrained, and overall concerns eased slightly. Sulfur prices fluctuated at high levels with divergent trends. Port inventories remained low, providing continued price support. Sulfuric acid prices also fluctuated at high levels, while phosphate rock prices remained firm at elevated levels. Cost pressure continued to increase, and producers showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm.

Overall, supported by high costs and tight supply, the MAP market is expected to remain firm at high levels in the short term. Going forward, attention should be paid to raw material price trends, the start of autumn fertilizer preparation by downstream compound fertilizer producers, and the transmission of sulfur market movements to the cost side after the signing of the U.S.-Iran agreement.

Diammonium Phosphate Price Index

According to FDD data, on June 22, the domestic mainstream 64% granular diammonium phosphate (DAP) index stood at 4,571.67, up 3.39% from the previous working day. The 60% brown DAP index stood at 4,350.00, flat from the previous working day. The 57% DAP index stood at 4,412.50, up 2.32% from the previous working day.

Diammonium Phosphate Market Analysis and Forecast

The domestic diammonium phosphate market moved firmly higher today. On the supply side, some producers mainly focused on shipping earlier pending orders, while others gradually issued new prices. Price-support sentiment in the market was strong, and actual transactions remained subject to negotiation.

In the market, cautious wait-and-see sentiment remained strong, and the trading atmosphere was still relatively sluggish.

On the demand side, the market is currently in the traditional off-season for fertilizer use. Domestic autumn fertilizer preparation has not yet started on a large scale. Most downstream compound fertilizer plants maintained low operating rates, with procurement limited to small volumes for daily rigid demand. Grassroots distributors remained cautious, and transactions were mainly small and scattered, leaving overall trading activity subdued.

On the raw material side, the U.S.-Iran negotiation process fluctuated during the holiday period, while continued interference from Israel intensified market caution over the outlook for negotiations. Iran at one point signaled the possibility of re-blocking the Strait of Hormuz. However, as the overall direction of peace talks has not been fully disrupted, the market response was relatively restrained, and overall concerns eased slightly. Sulfur prices fluctuated at high levels with divergent trends, and port inventories remained low, providing continued price support. Sulfuric acid prices also fluctuated at high levels. Phosphate rock prices remained firm at elevated levels, and high raw material prices continued to increase cost pressure, providing strong support to the market.

Overall, the DAP market is expected to maintain a firm trend in the short term. Going forward, attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices, downstream demand follow-up, and subsequent adjustments to export policies.

Sulfur Market Prices

According to FDD data, on June 22, the domestic granular sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port stood at RMB 9,400.00/tonne, flat from the previous working day. The granular sulfur price at Dafeng Port stood at RMB 9,380.00/tonne, flat from the previous working day. The powder/block sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port stood at RMB 9,350.00/tonne, flat from the previous working day. The powder/block sulfur price at Dafeng Port stood at RMB 9,330.00/tonne, flat from the previous working day. Solid sulfur in East China stood at RMB 8,730.00/tonne, flat from the previous working day, while liquid sulfur in East China stood at RMB 8,730.00/tonne, also flat from the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast

The domestic sulfur market showed regional divergence today, with a wait-and-see mood dominating overall. At ports, mainstream granular sulfur prices at Zhenjiang Port in the Yangtze River region remained stable. The market did not over-interpret the latest developments in the Middle East, and rational wait-and-see sentiment dominated, with trading activity relatively quiet. At Dafeng Port, end-users maintained a wait-and-see attitude, holders showed no willingness to make active offers, and trade interaction remained muted.

In contrast to the calm port market, the liquid sulfur market in Shandong moved higher in a volatile pattern. Strong rigid downstream demand continued to support procurement, trading was active, and the transaction center steadily moved upward, showing a clear divergence from the pre-holiday downward trend.

In terms of imports and exports, sulfur imports in May declined significantly both month-on-month and year-on-year, while cumulative imports from January to May also showed a notable decline. Imported supply continued to tighten. Port inventories remained relatively low, spot availability was generally tight, and holders showed reluctance to sell, providing bottom support for prices.

On the geopolitical front, the second phase of U.S.-Iran negotiations has encountered obstacles, and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has not yet resumed. The pace of supply recovery remains highly uncertain, as mine-clearance progress, shipping safety assessments, the easing of vessel congestion, and refinery restarts all require time to verify. In the short term, Middle Eastern sulfur supply is unlikely to return to normal quickly, and the tight import pattern may continue.

Overall, the sulfur market is currently in a stalemate between geopolitical premium and supply-demand fundamentals. Bullish factors include stalled negotiations, the Strait remaining closed, tight imports, low inventories, and strong rigid demand in Shandong. Bearish factors include limited downstream acceptance of high prices and strong wait-and-see sentiment. If navigation through the Strait resumes in the future, supply pressure may gradually ease. In the short term, the key variable remains the geopolitical outlook. If negotiations make substantive progress or expectations for resumed navigation strengthen, prices may face correction pressure. Conversely, if the stalemate continues, tight supply will be difficult to change, and prices are expected to remain volatile at high levels. Going forward, attention should be paid to the U.S.-Iran negotiation process, progress in restoring navigation through the Strait, changes in port inventories, and downstream phosphate fertilizer operating rates.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates

June 22: In the Anhui MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,400-4,500/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

June 22: In the Northeast China MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,250/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

June 22: In the Henan MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,500-4,550/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

June 22: In the Hubei MAP market, mainstream 55% powder MAP ex-factory prices were quoted at around RMB 4,200-4,450/tonne, with offers stable.

June 22: In the Jiangsu MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,500/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

June 22: In the Shandong MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,530-4,500/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

June 22: In the Sichuan MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,150/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

June 22: In the Yunnan MAP market, 55% powder MAP ex-factory prices were quoted at around RMB 4,250-4,300/tonne, with offers raised.

June 22: In Shaanxi, 60% DAP ex-factory self-pickup prices were quoted at RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne, with offers stable.

June 22: In Northeast China, 64% DAP ex-factory self-pickup prices were quoted at RMB 4,550-4,600/tonne, with offers stable.

June 22: In Hebei, 57% DAP self-pickup prices were quoted at RMB 4,400-4,500/tonne, with offers raised.

June 22: In Hubei, 64% DAP ex-factory self-pickup prices were quoted at RMB 4,800-4,850/tonne, with offers raised.

June 22: In Shandong, 64% DAP ex-warehouse self-pickup prices were quoted at RMB 4,900-4,980/tonne, with offers raised. 57% DAP self-pickup prices at railway platforms were quoted at RMB 4,400-4,500/tonne, with offers raised.