リン酸肥料デイリーレビュー、6月25日: 市場は堅調で安定したままであり、硫黄市場は弱さを拡大

Monoammonium Phosphate Price Index

According to FDD data, on June 25, the domestic 55% powder monoammonium phosphate (MAP) index stood at 4,435.00, flat from the previous working day. The 55% granular MAP index stood at 4,450.00, flat from the previous working day. The 58% powder MAP index stood at 4,710.00, flat from the previous working day.

Monoammonium Phosphate Market Analysis and Forecast

The domestic monoammonium phosphate market remained stable at high levels today.

On the supply side, most producers were still executing earlier orders, with no significant changes in market prices. Raw material prices remained elevated, traders maintained firm sentiment, and actual transactions were negotiated on a case-by-case basis.

In the market, sellers remained firm but constrained, buyers were cautious and wait-and-see, and traders were reluctant to sell while waiting for further price increases.

On the demand side, the market is currently in the transition period between the end of summer fertilizer demand and the start of autumn fertilizer preparation. End-user fertilizer demand remained weak. Downstream compound fertilizer plants continued to operate at low rates. Some producers had already completed partial raw material restocking earlier, showing limited willingness to purchase at high prices, while actual procurement remained mainly small-volume and need-based.

On the raw material side, sulfur prices continued to fluctuate weakly today, while port inventories remained low, providing continued price support. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated at high levels, and phosphate rock prices remained firm at elevated levels. Cost pressure continued to increase, and producers showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm.

Overall, supported by costs and tight supply, the MAP market is expected to remain firm in the short term. Going forward, attention should be paid to raw material price trends, the start of autumn fertilizer preparation by downstream compound fertilizer producers, and the transmission of sulfur market movements to the cost side after the signing of the U.S.-Iran agreement.

Diammonium Phosphate Price Index

According to FDD data, on June 25, the domestic mainstream 64% granular diammonium phosphate (DAP) index stood at 4,571.67, flat from the previous working day. The 60% brown DAP index stood at 4,350.00, flat from the previous working day. The 57% DAP index stood at 4,412.50, flat from the previous working day.

Diammonium Phosphate Market Analysis and Forecast

The domestic diammonium phosphate market continued to operate at high levels today.

On the supply side, some producers mainly focused on shipping earlier pending orders, while others gradually issued new prices. Price-support sentiment remained strong, and actual transactions continued to be negotiated.

In the market, the wait-and-see atmosphere continued.

On the demand side, the market is currently in the traditional off-season for fertilizer use. Domestic autumn fertilizer preparation has not yet started on a large scale. Most downstream compound fertilizer plants maintained low operating rates, with procurement limited to small volumes for daily rigid demand. Grassroots distributors remained cautious, and transactions were mainly small and scattered, leaving overall trading activity deadlocked and subdued.

On the raw material side, sulfur prices continued to fluctuate weakly today, while port inventories remained low, providing continued price support. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated at high levels. Phosphate rock prices remained firm at elevated levels, and high raw material costs continued to increase cost pressure, providing strong support to the market.

Overall, the DAP market is expected to continue operating at high levels in the short term. Going forward, attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices, downstream demand follow-up, and subsequent adjustments to export policies.

Sulfur Market Prices

According to FDD data, on June 25, the domestic granular sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port stood at RMB 8,950.00/tonne, down 2.72% from the previous working day. The granular sulfur price at Dafeng Port stood at RMB 8,950.00/tonne, down 2.72% from the previous working day. The powder/block sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port stood at RMB 8,900.00/tonne, down 2.73% from the previous working day. The powder/block sulfur price at Dafeng Port stood at RMB 8,880.00/tonne, down 2.74% from the previous working day. Solid sulfur in East China stood at RMB 8,730.00/tonne, flat from the previous working day, while liquid sulfur in East China stood at RMB 8,730.00/tonne, also flat from the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast

The domestic sulfur market showed an overall differentiated and weakening pattern today. Bearish sentiment continued to build, and overall transactions remained relatively light. Only some domestic solid sulfur markets saw slight improvement, while spot price centers in most regions moved lower.

Imported granular sulfur at ports extended its decline. Morning offers were at low levels, bearish sentiment in the market was strong, and both buyers and sellers maintained a wait-and-see stance, making it difficult for trading volume to expand. Prices of imported cargoes had already been lowered yesterday, while the market lacked strong support and mainstream circulation slowed.

The Shandong liquid sulfur market continued its previous weak downward trend. Local refinery auction prices fell repeatedly, and overall market sentiment remained weak. Downstream enterprises showed low acceptance of high-priced cargoes, and purchasing willingness continued to weaken. Buyers only maintained small-volume replenishment based on rigid demand. Various supply points actively lowered offers to encourage transactions, but high-priced cargoes faced obvious transaction resistance, and trading activity remained light.

The core driver of the market weakness lies in the gradual implementation of positive news regarding the passage of vessels previously delayed near the Strait. Market expectations have shifted, and the supply-tightening logic that previously supported high prices has weakened at the margin. The industry’s expectation for increased forward supply has strengthened, downstream stocking sentiment has become more cautious, and willingness to actively stockpile has cooled significantly. Across the market, buyers are mainly purchasing on a hand-to-mouth basis, making it difficult to form bulk procurement support for prices.

Looking ahead, the sulfur market is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly downward pattern in the short term this week. On the one hand, continued expectations for incremental supply from resumed Strait navigation are weighing on spot market sentiment. Downstream rigid demand is unlikely to drive a market recovery, traders are expected to continue offering concessions to ship cargoes, and prices still have room to decline. On the other hand, port inventories remain at historically low levels, domestic refining liquid sulfur output is limited, and potential support from forward autumn fertilizer demand remains. As a result, the momentum for a sharp one-sided decline is insufficient, and the market may see periodic narrow fluctuations during the downward process.

In the short term, procurement is recommended mainly based on rigid demand, while large-scale stockpiling should be approached cautiously. Close attention should be paid to port arrivals and regional auction transaction dynamics.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates

June 25: In the Anhui MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,530-4,550/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

June 25: In the Northeast China MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,250/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

June 25: In the Henan MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,530-4,550/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

June 25: In the Hubei MAP market, mainstream 55% powder MAP ex-factory prices were quoted at around RMB 4,200-4,450/tonne, with offers stable.

June 25: In the Jiangsu MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,520-4,500/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

June 25: In the Shandong MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,530-4,500/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

June 25: In the Sichuan MAP market, 55% powder MAP was quoted at around RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

June 25: In the Yunnan MAP market, 55% powder MAP ex-factory prices were quoted at around RMB 4,250-4,300/tonne, with offers stable.

June 25: In Shaanxi, 60% DAP ex-factory self-pickup prices were quoted at RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne, with offers stable.

June 25: In Northeast China, 64% DAP ex-factory self-pickup prices were quoted at RMB 4,550-4,600/tonne, with offers stable.

June 25: In Hebei, 57% DAP self-pickup prices were quoted at RMB 4,400-4,500/tonne, with offers stable.

June 25: In Hubei, 64% DAP ex-factory self-pickup prices were quoted at RMB 4,800-4,850/tonne, with offers stable.

June 25: In Shandong, 64% DAP ex-warehouse self-pickup prices were quoted at RMB 4,900-4,980/tonne, with offers stable. 57% DAP self-pickup prices at railway platforms were quoted at RMB 4,400-4,500/tonne, with offers stable.