尿素市場最新動向：堅調な価格、インド入札の期待

01 Market Overview

1.1 FDD Price Index

This week the domestic urea market as a whole showed a narrow, firm, rangebound pattern. After last week's news that an Indian tender would soon be announced and that the tender volume would exceed market expectations, both futures and spot were lifted by sentiment; futures firmed first last Friday and then drove a recovery in spot market sentiment, downstream purchasing enthusiasm rose noticeably over the weekend, and producers raised quotations accordingly. Combined with the gradual start of reserve demand and expectations of supply-side maintenance, the market stayed in a firm atmosphere throughout the week. However, the Indian tender did not land during the week, downstream willingness to chase prices weakened after mainstream regions moved higher, and quotations in a few regions pulled back slightly, though the overall tone was one of standoff and stable prices. Fundamentals have not yet changed noticeably, the ample-supply pattern continues, and the market temporarily lacks further drivers, with most participants waiting to see whether the Indian tender lands as expected and whether the pace of domestic demand follow-through can ease pressure at home.

According to FDD data estimates: as of this Friday, the domestic urea small granular price index was 1,793.18, up 12.73 versus last Friday, a rise of 0.71% week on week.

In the first half of the week, the urea market rose first and then steadied. Over the weekend, export news lifted spot business, producers raised quotations across the board, and futures followed higher; but since the Indian tender news did not land as expected, both capital behavior and real demand were cautious about chasing prices, and after the first round of sentiment the market cooled somewhat, temporarily running in a narrow range while waiting to see whether expectations are fulfilled.

In the second half of the week, the urea market continued to consolidate, with prices in some regions edging lower. As the speculative excitement over export news faded, willingness to keep chasing prices declined and most participants stood aside. However, given expectations that gas-based plants will cut production later and the approach of the window for reserve demand release, bullish expectations provided a fairly strong floor for both futures and spot; yet without actual incremental demand the upside driver is likewise insufficient, and the market is largely waiting to see whether the bullish factors can be delivered.

1.2 Delivery Region Quotations

Specifically, prices in Northeast China rose to 1,780-1,820 yuan/t. Prices in East China rose to 1,750-1,780 yuan/t. In Central China, medium and small granular prices rose to 1,740-1,900 yuan/t, while large granular prices held stable at 2,020-2,050 yuan/t. Prices in North China rose to 1,650-1,830 yuan/t. Prices in South China rose to 1,850-1,860 yuan/t. Prices in Northwest China were stable at 1,860-1,910 yuan/t. Prices in Southwest China were stable at 1,650-1,900 yuan/t.

Urea Small Granular Market Quotations (yuan/t)

02 Industry Chain Dynamics

2.1 Daily Output

Output: this week domestic urea output was about 1.5262 million tonnes, up 19,000 tonnes from last week, a rise of 1.26% week on week and 12.68% year on year; the weekly average daily output was 218,000 tonnes, up 2,700 tonnes from last week. Industry output fluctuated narrowly during the week, daily output remained above 210,000 tonnes, the supply level stayed high, and the market's ample supply situation persists.

Operating rate: the domestic urea industry operating rate was about 89.83%, up 1.11% week on week and up 5.75% year on year; the industry operating rate rose slightly during the week and is above the year-earlier level.

By product type, large granular urea output was about 347,500 tonnes, up 37,900 tonnes from last week, a rise of 12.24% week on week, and up 72,500 tonnes year on year, a rise of 26.36%; the large granular operating rate was about 97.45%, up 10.63% from last week and up 16.33% year on year. Medium and small granular urea output was about 1.1785 million tonnes, down 19,100 tonnes from last week, a decline of 1.59% week on week, and up 76,600 tonnes year on year, a rise of 6.95%; the medium and small granular operating rate was about 87.80%, down 1.42% from last week and up 2.95% year on year.

By production route, coal-based urea output was about 1.2747 million tonnes, up 39,100 tonnes from last week and up 175,900 tonnes year on year; the operating rate was about 94.95%, up 2.91% from last week and up 9.29% year on year. Gas-based urea output was about 251,300 tonnes, down 20,300 tonnes from last week and down 26,800 tonnes year on year; the operating rate was about 70.51%, down 5.70% from last week and down 2.54% year on year.

2.2 Plant Dynamics

China Urea Sample Planned Maintenance Enterprise Data

2.3 Market Inventory

Enterprises: this week enterprise inventory was about 1.8414 million tonnes, up 43,800 tonnes from last week, a rise of 5.44% week on week, and up 263,300 tonnes year on year, a rise of 16.68%. Enterprise inventory continued to build overall this week, though the pace of build narrowed somewhat; some plants in mainstream regions took orders flexibly amid the news flow, improving cargo flows in certain areas, but build-up continued in other regions where domestic demand support is insufficient. The supply-demand conflict has not eased, and the pressure to destock at enterprises will be hard to fully remove.

Ports: total port inventory was 821,400 tonnes, down 34,000 tonnes from last week, a decline of 3.97% week on week, and up 742,400 tonnes year on year, a rise of 939.75%. Port volumes changed little during the week, with some northern ports seeing small outbound shipments. With the Indian tender still not landing, traders' willingness to concentrate cargo at ports is relatively cautious.

Large granular: this week domestic large granular urea port inventory was 531,400 tonnes, down 34,000 tonnes from last week, a decline of 6.01%, and up 466,400 tonnes year on year; large granular port volumes edged lower during the week and remain above the year-earlier level.

Small granular: this week domestic small granular urea port inventory was 290,000 tonnes, flat versus last week, and up 245,000 tonnes year on year; small granular port inventory was unchanged during the week and remains above the year-earlier level.

2.4 Compound Fertilizer Industry

This week domestic compound fertilizer remained weak and steady overall. With autumn fertilizer wrapping up, the market's focus shifted to winter storage, short-term incremental demand is limited, and overall trading activity is light. As of this Friday, the domestic 45%S price index was 3,269.17 and the 45%CL price index was 2,739.09.

On the cost side, upstream raw materials were broadly soft and rangebound: urea was slightly steady to firm, synthetic ammonia fluctuated little, MAP and potassium chloride stayed weak, and potassium sulphate continued to soften in actual business, so overall cost support for compound fertilizer is fairly limited. On the demand side, the market's focus shifted to winter storage, enterprises focused on destocking and recovering cash, discounts on actual business and case-by-case pricing were widespread, and the center of prices kept moving lower. On supply and demand: as the season winds down, enterprise production schedules have declined and the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate has reached a low; meanwhile winter-storage pre-sales in the south and Northeast continue, but channels are strongly cautious and restocking is slow, so supply-demand activity has yet to pick up. The Wuhan phosphate and compound fertilizer conference was held this week, and the market is focused on the industry information released there; compound fertilizer is expected to stay weak, steady and wait-and-see in the short term, with attention on the conference's guidance, the rollout of winter-storage policies and raw material changes.

2.5 Melamine Industry

This week the domestic melamine market consolidated. On supply, some enterprises in Shandong, Hubei, Sichuan and Xinjiang suffered unplanned shutdowns or planned maintenance during the week, and the industry capacity utilization rate fell from its high; combined with continued export orders at some enterprises, supply pressure eased somewhat, enterprises' willingness to hold prices strengthened, and a few enterprises with ample pending orders made tentative small increases in quotations. On demand, mid- and downstream sentiment remained cautious and purchasing follow-through was insufficient; urea prices fluctuated, further weakening the market's upward momentum. Overall, inventory and pending orders vary by enterprise, sentiment has diverged, and quotations are mostly adjusted flexibly. Looking ahead, with maintenance units gradually restarting, the industry capacity utilization rate may recover, and short-term positives are hard to find; but with pending orders differing across enterprises and a relatively firm willingness to hold prices, the market is expected to continue adjusting flexibly.

2.6 International Market Quotes

China bulk small granular FOB is USD 340.01-350.01/t, down USD 2-7/t; Black Sea small granular port FOB is USD 375.01-395.01/t, with the high end down USD 5/t; Baltic small granular port FOB is USD 370.01-390.01/t, with the high end down USD 5/t; Middle East small granular port FOB is USD 425.01-440.01/t, with the high end down USD 5/t; Brazil small granular CFR is USD 430.01-450.01/t, flat versus last week; India CFR is USD 352.01-356.01/t, flat versus last week.

Iran large granular port FOB is USD 350.01-355.01/t, with the low end down USD 2/t; Egypt (Europe) large granular port FOB is USD 525.01-535.01/t, flat versus last week. Brazil large granular CFR is USD 465.01-480.01/t, with the low end up USD 5/t and the high end down USD 5/t; Southeast Asia large granular port CFR is USD 440.01-475.01/t, down USD 5-15/t; China large granular port FOB is USD 415.01-425.01/t, down USD 5-10/t.

03 Outlook

Supply: industry plants are generally maintaining flexible production, short-term operating levels are broadly stable with minor changes, and overall daily output is expected to fluctuate around the high level of 210,000 tonnes next week, with cargo supply still fairly ample. The market's focus may be on whether gas-based plants undertake concentrated maintenance later.

Inventory: affected by the earlier demand gap, enterprise inventory accumulated sharply for consecutive periods, and inventory across the social circulation chain is still under pressure; however, after this week's improvement in market business, enterprise build-up pressure is expected to ease somewhat next week, though absolute inventory levels remain high year on year and market pressure will be hard to reduce.

Demand: agricultural demand is currently in an off-season, downstream compound fertilizer enterprises are operating at low levels and continuing to decline, and raw material purchasing remains buy-as-needed; the pace and scale of export shipments will determine whether surplus capacity can be effectively absorbed, and the market is waiting to see whether export news can be delivered as expected to divert domestic pressure. Attention should also be paid to whether the release of reserve and other demand can form a phase of resonance with external demand.